Trying Something New
How does one choose what to write about after a long hiatus? So much water under the bridge, some of it sweet and clear, and some brackish, muddy, carrying along oak trunks festooned with desperately clinging raccoons. The boring, the sublime, the absurd: life has had plenty of it.
Choosing the right thing were too difficult, so instead we are going to play a game. Matt Drudge is going to have a headline, and I am going to give my half-formed opinion about it. I hope this will be fun for both of us. I promise to keep it short form, as long as you promise not to read it.
Let's get started.
DEVELOPING: HOSTAGES RELEASED
I'm honestly shocked the hostages were released. I would have taken odds against it a month ago. I think we should all hope and pray for the peaceful transfer of power from Hamas to civilian authorities, and that humanitarian aid may flow freely, and that this is the beginning of an era of peace and healing for the people of Gaza.
But I doubt it.
And take my doubt with a grain of salt. I would have said that the hostages would never see the light of day. That Hamas would have decided that Tell Umm Amer was the hill to die on; they had already damned the cost so many times. And Israel was so determined not to blink. They said no peace without the hostages back, and they meant it even Gazan's died 100 to 1 to the victims of October 7th. On both sides, we got a glimpse of what war looks like without mercy.
I doubt that the ceasefire now is for mercy, on either side of the equation. We saw implacable hate on both sides of this conflict, and I imagine it has not abated, but calculation is ruling the day.
At this moment, I reflect on the end of Edward Rutherford's excellent--though not uplifting--novel Russka, which ends with the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the professed hope by one character that Russia will finally put its love affair with authoritarianism behind it. And the author expresses his subtle doubt. Prescient for a man who finished writing years before Putin, and over a decade before we saw Putin's true face.
I'm not sure what it takes for a whole people to change, especially an ancient people like the Russians. Now what about a more ancient people, like the Semitic Muslims of Palestine, or the Mizrahi of Palestine and the 30 other places they got thrown out of by Muslims after Ottoman protection (well, protected tax farming) disintegrated.
Maybe this is the traumatic event that change people. Maybe the ruins of a city and exhaustion from facing the horrors of war will change them. Or maybe the next strongman is around the corner.
The most fascinating part of the cease fire, and the only amusing part, is the silence of social media influencers on the topic. They do not know how to react. They do not know how to feel about it. They have not yet been told how to feel about it. The paralysis that comes from the fear of saying the wrong thing is still upon them.
The Bell weathers will move soon. Until then, enjoy a few moments of blessed silence.
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